Macro Q&A - 20 Questions and 20 Answers
- Will the 10yr Treasury yield breach 2% this year?
- When will the Japanese intervene?
- Will the US finally get tough with China in the run up to the mid-terms?
- When will the UK have a 4% CPI print?
- What will US GDP be for 2H 2010?
- Will SNB LLC resume macro punting (aka EURCHF interventions) this year?
- Does the SPX trade 1040 or 1140 first?
- Will Simon Hughes cause the ConDem coalition to collapse?
- Who will win the Labour leadership contest?
- Are we turning Japanese?
- Who will be the first to hike? Fed, BoE or ECB?
- Does Drukenmiller's departure herald the end of Macro trading?
- When will the divergence between Eurozone and US growth surprises begin to close, and how? Eurozone weakness or US strength?
- Will the Republicans capture the House?
- Will Voldemort ever stop taking the piss?
- Which will be the next Macro fund to call it quits?
- Is the Bank of England losing control of inflation?
- Is there a bond bubble?
- When will the Fed move the Interest On Reserves (IOR) Rate negative?
- What will happen to the GSEs?
And my answers ...
1: Yes (Q4)
2: If the USD/JPY hits 80 or if it stays at 85 til Q4
4: They won't
5: (qoq) Q3 0.3%, Q4 0.2%
8: No Idea
10: Europe is, the US is touch and go; I think they might just make it!
11: Fed in Q4 2011
13: In H02 2010 (Eurozone weakness)
16: Not yours I hope!
18: Yes, but it has some time still to run
19: H01 2011
20: Nothing in the next 18 months.
Don't bet all your portfolio on this though. It is just fun and sports!