A Great Story

We will probably spend a big part of Q4 deciphering the economic data through the murky looking-glass of U.S. hurricanes and Asian typhoons, so just to be clear. I am still not happy with the trajectory of global leading indicators. Narrow money growth has collapsed, and recent data suggest that the slowdown will worsen in Q3. M1 in China rose 3.9% year-over-year in August, the slowest pace since the middle of 2015, and the trend in the U.S. and Europe also is poor. In the U.S., M1 is growing just under four percent on the year, the weakest since 2008, and the EZ headline also has slowed, though it is robust overall. The crunch in narrow money chimes with central bank balance sheet data. My home-cooked broad index, which includes the SNB and Chinese FX reserves, is now falling on a six-month basis. These data don’t mean the same in all economies—M1 is not a good LEI in the U.S. for example—and the Chinese numbers will turn up soon to reflect recent efforts to ease financial conditions. That said, a slowdown in US dollar liquidity matters for non-US markets, and the Chinese M1 numbers lead by six-to-nine months. The overall story is clear: Global liquidity growth has slowed to a trickle, warning about risks for growth and asset prices.

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