Monetary Policy and Price Measurement
Since it has been a while since I have had one of my theoretical moments I thought that I would outsource it this time around. Todays topic is a big one and the thought that monetary policy and price measurement can be covered in one entry seems overly ambitious perhaps even a bit naive. Yet what about three posts then? I consequently present you Dave Altig's three latest posts in which he covers his attendance in a recent conference at the Dallas Fed on monetary policy and price measurement.
Here are Dave's three entries plus a small blurb for each ...
Today and tomorrow finds me in the fine state of Texas, at a conference on "Price Measurement for Monetary Policy," co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Dallas. First up was a paper by Diana Weymark and Mototsugau Shintani from Vanderbilt University, titled "Measuring Inflation Pressure and Monetary Policy Response: A General Approach Applied to US Data 1966-2001." The idea is take a particular model of the economy and monetary policy, and ask the following sort of questions: How responsible was the central bank in determining inflationary outcomes, where the central banks influence covers both active policy (or interest rate) choices, as well as the evolution of inflationary expectations.
Day 2 of the Cleveland/Dallas Fed Conference on Price Measurement for Monetary Policy, and the topic on the table is measuring inflation expectations. Regular readers of macroblog know that I have particular affection for expectations derived from inflation-indexed Treasury securities, especially those adjusted for liquidity premia reported by the Cleveland Fed.
I'm home at last from the Conference on Price Measurement for Monetary Policy that has absorbed my attention over the past couple of days, but I have one more post on the topic left in me, not least because the topic of the last several papers -- the measurement of inflation expectations gleaned from survey data -- is one in which I have a particular interest. As far as I know, the review of the ECB Survey Professional Forecasters (SPF) (by authors from the European Central Bank too numerous to mention here) is the first large-scale overview of its kind, and thorough it is. Among the copious information is this, which I found particularly interesting:
Well worth a look!