One of the more enjoyable aspects of being an independent macroeconomic researcher—at least for a geek like me—is the road trips when you get to speak to clients and prospects. Sure, you see more airport lounges and hotel rooms than you need to. But there is no better way to gauge the zeitgeist than to spend a week in meetings with portfolio managers and asset allocators. I have done just that in New York, and I sense a cautious optimism that the positive trend in equities and credit and the economy will continue for a bit longer. In my capacity as a Eurozone economist, my central message to the wardens of our capital was that the European economy is just fine. But I also spent time floating the following proposition: Monetary policy divergence is back with a vengeance, and macro traders will make, or lose, their money on this theme in the next 12 months. The ECB and the BOJ recently have signalled to markets that they will be stuck with negative interest rates for a while. Meanwhile, the the Fed is on the move, a point highlighted by Friday’s robust advance Q3 GDP report, which suggests that growth in the U.S. economy was a punchy 3% annualised, despite a drag from two hurricanes.
If you want to read the whole thing, click here for the PDF.