Posts tagged Germany
Manipulate This - What Really Drives Global Capital Flows

I am generally a tolerant guy, but when it comes to a debate on international capital flows I am a raving lunatic. I have no time for amateurs, and it is my clear impression that president Trump’s trade advisors, and those who agree with them, are just that. You need to understand where I am coming from, though. Specifically, you need to read my two essays about QE, population ageing and the global paradox of thrift. Here is a summary if you don’t want to read the whole thing; read it carefully.

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Widening the opportunity set

One the more enjoyable things about reading Macro Man in recently is that the author's mood, as well as the spirit of the more battle hardened of his commenters, have been lifted significantly. This is not because they necessarily wanted Mr. Trump to move into the White House, but rather because the political shock in the U.S. appears to have brought back good old fashioned, active, macro trading. 

I am not sure it ever left, but I sympathise with the idea that the change in political winds in the U.S., and Europe, will unlock hitherto barren markets for swashbuckling macro investors. The added joy of such a story would be that the index huggers and risk-parity brigade would see their clout diminished somewhat. After all, bond yields are now rising again, and next year's political constellation in Europe could well create a number of new currencies to dabble in. I doubt Macro Man will be that lucky, though, but one can always dream I suppose

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