Posts in US Economy
Is it time to stop caring about politics?

In this show I argue that paying less attention to Mr. Trump and the White House probably won't do you any harm. It might even do you good. I also respond to the idea that no credible alternatives are currently being offered to the surge in new populism and its policy suggestions. I offer three concrete proposals. Finally, I try to make an impossible transition to a brief discussion about financial markets. I will put up some charts in the next few days, but I am not sure that much has changed. The queue of bears at the abattoir is long as ever. 

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Don't get soft on me

I am pressed for time this weekend, so instead of coming up with something entirely new, I thought that I'd do an addendum to my last post. I thought I dug relatively deep in that essay about whether global economic growth is accelerating. Obviously, it isn't easy to a give a clear answer to that question—we're doing economics after all—but the evidence from headline leading indicators suggest that the global economy picked up speed at the end of last year. Regular punters at this space, and my friends in the market, though, weren't impressed. Specifically, I was told that I was neglecting the spread between hard and soft data. 

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Who will blink first?

I have a feeling that equity markets are setting a trap for investors, but I can't quite figure out which kind it is. Will the last bull be sucked in before the disappointment sets in, or are we now on a sustainable glide path towards new highs with maximum frustration for the sceptics? We didn't get any decisive clues last week. Equity volatility rose a tad, but ranges remain incredibly tight across a number of key asset markets. False breaks are guaranteed, and vol-sellers will continue to play cat and mouse with the heroes trying to straddle the ranges, playing for a breakout. 

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Manipulate This - What Really Drives Global Capital Flows

I am generally a tolerant guy, but when it comes to a debate on international capital flows I am a raving lunatic. I have no time for amateurs, and it is my clear impression that president Trump’s trade advisors, and those who agree with them, are just that. You need to understand where I am coming from, though. Specifically, you need to read my two essays about QE, population ageing and the global paradox of thrift. Here is a summary if you don’t want to read the whole thing; read it carefully.

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