Global Economy — Alpha.Sources

Global Leading Indicators, August 2025 - Who's afraid of payrolls anyway?

Global leading indicators remained robust heading into autumn, despite softening compared to levels at the start of the year. Uncertainty always lurks in financial markets, and currently, (at least) three major questions are weighing on investors—threatening the ongoing optimism in the global economy and financial markets:

U.S. Trade Policy and Tariffs: Did the White House, back in April, effectively throw a boomerang that's now returning to hit both the U.S. and global economy in the face?
Sustainability of the AI Investment Boom: Is the surge in tech and AI-exposed equities evidence of a genuine transformation, a bubble that is about to pop with predictably adverse consequences for markets and the economy.
Global Bond Market Sell-Off: Investors are raising questions about long-term fiscal sustainability in the U.S., U.K., France, and Japan, even speculating about the erosion of monetary policy independence in the U.S. A crisis of confidence in one or more of these large bond markets could trigger turbulence across opaque, illiquid private credit markets, spilling over into the real economy.

AS Global Debt Chartbook, Q4-2024 - How long is a piece of string?

I’ve been sitting on this project for a while, but I’m finally ready to bring it above the fold. I’ve long wanted a straightforward overview of global debt levels—both public and private—and an easy way to compare them across countries, alongside their respective external dynamics. This is essential material for macro investors and researchers, yet it’s rare to find all the relevant information compiled in one place. The AS global debt chartbook is a first attempt at this. Like the LEI Chartbook, this project runs on Python code generated and compiled with the help of my trusty OpenAI assistant, with a few manual adjustments along the way. At the moment, it draws data from an Excel spreadsheet, but integrating APIs should be relatively straightforward down the line.

Global Leading Indicators, June 2025 - What Tariffs?

The June 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.

Global leading indicators improved further at the end of Q2, as markets and decision-makers in the real economy concluded that Mr. Trump’s tariff threats are more bark than bite. However, the U.S. President has since rekindled his appetite for tariffs, unveiling several high-profile measures targeting Asian economies, along with the weekend bombshell of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and Europe.

Global Leading Indicators, May 2025 - Stabilising?

Global leading indicators were stabilizing midway through Q2, exposing the tension between macroeconomic forecasts—many of which still anticipate a significant slowdown in the second half of the year—and incoming data and market signals that suggest the trade wars, or at least the most deleterious effect of this threat, are a thing of the past. The White House will bluster, but is likely to avoid imposing growth- or market-damaging policies on a sustained basis. Underlying this assumption is the expectation that the U.S. administration will not jeopardize the privileges conferred by issuing the world’s dominant reserve currency and commanding the deepest and most liquid capital markets globally.

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