What now?

Everyone has a plan until they get kicked in the nuts by a new virus variant, apparently. The speed with which markets deteriorated on Friday on the news of the B.1.1.529 variant—first detected in South Africa and Botswana, but now confirmed in both Europe and Asia—was telling. So is the swiftness with which many countries already are digging deep in the pre-vaccination toolbox of travel restrictions and, inevitably, domestic restrictions of some form. Indeed, even before the new variant, recently renamed ominously to Omicron, arrived on the scene, Europe was inching closer to new restrictions. Austria and Netherlands were in full or semi-lockdown before Friday, and given the direction of numbers in the major economies, it was only a matter of time before more widespread restrictions were introduced. So, here we are; 18 months of rolling lockdowns and travel restrictions, trillion of dollars in public support, and around 70% of the adult population double-jabbed—and shall we say another 10% with immunity from previous infection?—and we’re back to square one. Someone, somewhere, will soon have to start asking questions, but maybe not yet.

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