Posts in Things to think about
Things to think about #13 - Is AI plateauing? and Monetising US hegemony

Adam Butler, head of ReSolve Asset Management, makes an interesting observation on AI in the wake of the publicised roll-out of ChatGPT 5. In effect, he argues that the AI cycle is over, for now.

The problem isn’t that the models stopped improving. It’s that the improvements we need are measured in orders of magnitude, not percentage points. Every step up the scaling laws now demands a city’s worth of electricity and a sovereign wealth fund’s worth of GPUs. You can still squeeze clever tricks out of mixture-of-experts or chain tiny specialists into something that looks like agency; that keeps the demo videos cinematic. It just doesn’t get us to super-intelligence. For that we need either an architectural miracle (unforecastable by definition) or a civil-engineering miracle (a decade-long sprint to build nuclear plants and 2-nanometer fabs). The first is luck. The second is politics. Both are scarce.

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Things to think about #12 - Oxygen and Abundance

I was pool side at the start of the month which means, in my case, the time to run through one of the larger audiobooks in my Audible library in large uninterrupted chunks while sipping a cold drink. My choice on this occasion was Nick Lane’s Oxygen: The Molecule that made the World. The book travels far and wide, and it’s well worth the time, though parts of it are rather technical for those of us who aren’t biological chemists, despite Lane’s best efforts to make the content accessible. I dozed off more than once midway through — as one tends to do when horizontal at the pool — and had to rewind and restart a few chapters.

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Things to think about #11 -Black Monday, Old God's Time and The Point Magazine on Feminism

I was out for a run this weekend with a friend who also works in the financial industry. As we sat down afterward over a cup of tea, our conversation turned—unsurprisingly—to the risk of a Black Monday tomorrow. This, in case you’re wondering, is how investors are spending their weekend: nervously looking ahead to next week’s open. Accidents happen in financial markets, but it’s not often they’re triggered by policy errors as egregious as the one we saw last week from Donald Trump. Not to worry, though; Mr. Trump and his team have a habit of throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks. This one, clearly, is sliding down pretty quickly. So they’ll walk it back, right?

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Things to think about #9 - A Millennial's Manifesto (audio), Greenland, Neoliberalism, and Low-calorie information

My “Millennial’s Manifesto” is up as an audio essay on Apple Podcast. Go have a listen! Also consider subscribing to the podcast channel. The cadence of these audio essays is slow, one essay every one or two months, so you won’t be overwhelmed by content. I know many people prefer to listen to their content rather than reading (more about that below), and my decision to start publishing audio essays is my attempt to cater for that. Thanks again for reading and listening.

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