Global birth rates are falling at an accelerated pace. According to the UN, the global total fertility rate (TFR) dropped to a record low of 2.25 in 2023 and is projected to fall further to 2.2 in 2024. At this pace, the TFR is set to dip below the replacement level of 2.1 nearly two decades earlier than the UN’s latest forecasts had anticipated.
The long-run decline in fertility has two main components. The first is the "quantum effect"—the trend for families to have fewer children as incomes rise, choosing instead to invest more in each child, particularly through education. Economics and evolutionary theory both rely on this shift in the quantity-quality trade-off to explain why fertility has fallen since the Industrial Revolution, even as wealth has grown.
The second component is the "tempo effect"—birth postponement. Women are delaying motherhood due to rising labour force participation and career opportunities, which increase the opportunity cost of having children, and shifting social norms. Other contributors include difficulty in finding a partner, precarious housing and job markets, and evolving personal preferences. Meanwhile, outright childlessness is increasing, which neither the quantum nor tempo frameworks fully explain.
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