The economics of business cycle theory revolves around understanding the recurrent fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—expansions and contractions—that characterize market economies. These cycles, while irregular in timing and amplitude, display certain regularities in employment, production, investment, and prices. Over the past century, economists have developed two main traditions in explaining them: one empirical and inductive, epitomised by the work of Geoffrey H. Moore and Victor Zarnowitz; the other theoretical and deductive, culminating in Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory. The contrast between these approaches highlights a broader tension in macroeconomics between data-driven description and model-based explanation.
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