I should be honest about my bias here. On a spectrum between those who see AI as a technology that overpromises and will eventually underdeliver, and those—like Marc Andreessen and DHH—who see it as a transformative technology with enormous promise, I am firmly in the latter camp. All that really means, however, is that I am choosing to lean into the technology for two reasons. First, because I genuinely think it is cool. Second, because whether I like it or not, it will transform the industry in which I work. I can’t afford not to understand and use it.
Read MoreI was out for a run this weekend with a friend who also works in the financial industry. As we sat down afterward over a cup of tea, our conversation turned—unsurprisingly—to the risk of a Black Monday tomorrow. This, in case you’re wondering, is how investors are spending their weekend: nervously looking ahead to next week’s open. Accidents happen in financial markets, but it’s not often they’re triggered by policy errors as egregious as the one we saw last week from Donald Trump. Not to worry, though; Mr. Trump and his team have a habit of throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks. This one, clearly, is sliding down pretty quickly. So they’ll walk it back, right?
Read MoreI’ve recently spent ten days on the lovely Adriatic coast on Croatia. It is the second time I have holidayed in the country, and I wasn’t disappointed. Its inviting coastline—especially between Split and Dubrovnik—is as good a retreat for sun and relaxation as anywhere in southern Europe’s other more well-known holiday spots. Holiday tends to mean audiobook binging, and on this occasion I listened to John Banville’s Snow, narrated by Stanley Townsend in the Audible version. This was a bit of a risk. My wife recently bought Banville’s The Singularities, and struggled to get traction with it. I then had a go, and while I found the prose mysteriously hypnotic, I struggled to follow the plot, and eventually put it down, having reached only a bit further than my wife. I later realised that this was partly because The Singularities presumes knowledge of Banville’s earlier works.
Read MoreI’ve recently come back from a week on Ibiza—the smaller and cooler of the main Spanish Mediterranean isles—enjoying what has to be one of the most fantastic climates on earth. I come back to the realisation that I could have been more spendthrift in the pool bar despite its grotesquely overpriced drinks and snacks. Stocks are flying, credit spreads are narrow and volatility has plunged to a new low for the year. My relatively defensive portfolio is currently tracking a punchy 3.8% monthly gain for May, just shy of the 4.4% rise in the S&P 500. Long may it continue. I will have more to say about this in due course, but in the first instance, my recent work suggests that this rally has one strong tailwind on its side; the cyclical picture in the global economy has improved. My measures of global cyclical activity hit a new high at the end of Q1, and into Q2, from a trough last year, and cyclical equity returns are now re-accelerating, after softening a touch at the start of the year.
Read More