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Into the summer lull

We have had the first proper summer days in the north east of England this weekend, and they've been delivered just in time for the Hoppings. For those uninitiated in the folklore of Newcastle living, it does not get much better than that. It is tempting to extrapolate this state of affairs to the coming months, and hope for a warm summer lull. But experience suggests that would be complacent. Rain is forecast for next week. We should enjoy it while it lasts.

In markets, last week offered up another pinch of curve flattening across the pond. The Fed raised rates, as expected, and also signalled one more hike this year. The hawkish bias surprised some punters which had been looking for the Fed to climb down in light of recent underwhelming inflation prints. As far as I can see, though, the Fed didn't really veer off course. Central banks are like super tankers; they move slowly and persistently. The FOMC reiterated that it is in a three-hikes-a-year mode and that it continues to expect the labour market to tighten. If this is a traditional cycle, the Fed will stay the course until something breaks somewhere.

Big Decisions

I vividly remember my first desktop computer. It was a mighty machine powered by an AMD Athlon 800mhz processor with 64mb ram. As a true geek, I upgraded it several times and with respect to the graphics cards, there were only two choices at the turn of the century. You either went with AMD's Radeon chips or NVIDIA's GeForce range. My choice settled on a Radeon with 64mb; AMD was the underdog at the time, but their Radeon cards were top quality. It offered crisp pictures, and smooth gameplay, to support my career as online gamer in the Unreal Tournament clan The Viper's Nest. The world has moved on since then. I am no longer as adept with an Instagib rifle as I used to be, and NVIDIA no longer only relies on selling graphic chips. Today the firm is centre stage in the debate on whether U.S. tech stocks—and the infamous FANGs—are in a bubble.

Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenJune 11, 2017Brexit, UK, NVIDIA, FANG, Nasdaq, equities, technology, bubble, Theresa May

Curveball

Let's assume that you think the Fed will raise rates two more times this year, and for the sake of argument three times in 2018. It stands to reason that your forecast for two-year yields at the end of next year has to be about 2.5%-to-3.0%. The argument for this sequence of events seems fairly straightforward. The U.S. economy is growing—albeit not spectacularly—, unemployment is sub-5%, and the FOMC is anxious to put the era of super-loose monetary policy behind it. The key question, though, is what your corresponding forecasts for 5-year and 10-year yields are, because we're closer to a do-or-die moment for bonds and the Fed's "hiking cycle."

I think we're looking at a four-scenario outlook.

Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenJune 4, 2017equities, bonds, yield curve, equity sectors

It's all relative

Volatility returned to equity markets last week, but it was a quick visit. The S&P 500 slid 1.8% on Wednesday, the VIX jumped and babies were thrown out of with the bathwater in Brazil. For a short while, it looked like significant chink in the armour, but this market is not easy to bring down. Equities snapped back at the end of the week and volatility receded. On the week, the S&P 500 ended down 0.4%—after a 0.3% decline the week before—just about the same as the MSCI World. One of the main debates on the Tee Vee Thursday morning was whether this "pull-back" marked the beginning of the big kahuna sell-off and a global recession. When the market goes up, we cry foul due to high valuations and tentative evidence of "bubble behaviour," and when it finally stumbles it stands to reason that it must the beginning of the big unravelling.

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