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Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook, February 2026 - The Tangible Economy Strikes Back

The February 2026 edition of the S&P 500 equity sector rotation chartbook can be found here You can read more about the methodology and underlying assets here.

The SaaSpocalypse is upon us and with it comes the inevitable soul searching among investors who thought that a concentrated bet on US/global tech was a never-losing source of excess returns relative to the wider market. This looks to me like a long overdue sell-off in search of a narrative rather than the other way round, but it’s a pretty compelling narrative, all the same.

Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenFebruary 8, 2026equities, equity sectors

Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook, October 2025 - Nirvana

Equity investors are currently in the enviable position of having their cake and eating it too. What if I told you that you could outperform the S&P 500 by investing in market-leading U.S. technology firms—and enhance that outperformance further by adding non-U.S. equities? Sounds too good to be true? Well, yes and no.

Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenNovember 2, 2025equities, equity sectors

The siren song of dollar weakness

A weaker dollar seems to be the answer to everyone’s prayers at the moment—or more specifically, investors want exposure to the exceptionalism of U.S. capital markets without the currency exposure that comes with it. From the BIS, via FXStreet:

Many investors still want to remain invested in US equities (belief in US exceptionalism is alive and well!), but at the same time, they see growing risks for the US dollar, not least due to the US government’s attacks on the Federal Reserve. A significant depreciation of the dollar could reduce the returns on the actual equity investment or even wipe them out entirely. So what is the solution? Hedging against dollar weakness. Ultimately, these hedges are effectively bets on a weaker US currency and, if widely adopted, create selling pressure on the dollar."

Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook, September 2025 - Running hot, and narrow

The September 2025 edition of the S&P 500 equity sector rotation chartbook can be found here. You can read more about the methodology and underlying assets here. This chartbook has been prepared with 1y total return, which is a departure from the first version with six-month returns. I honestly didn’t think about this when I pulled the data from Investing.com, as I normally work with 1y total return data for portfolio construction and the like. This shouldn’t make a huge difference to the main conclusions, though in some cases it might obviously shift the sectors around in the key diagram, compared to a six-month return framework. If you have a preference for future versions of this chartbook, let me know.

AI, Markets and Trading, Corporate Financeclaus vistesenSeptember 27, 2025equities, equity rotation, chartbooks

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