The March update of the global LEI chartbook confirms that a broad-based upturn in global cyclical activity has been underway since the end of the third quarter of last year. However, the data show hints of weakness at the end of Q1, with the number of positive LEIs sitting at 14 out of 20—unchanged from a downwardly revised level in February and below the average of 16 recorded between September and January. This deterioration comes before leading indicators have had to contend with the chaos wrought by the war in Iran and disruptions to energy and commodity flows through the Strait of Hormuz and, more broadly, across the Middle East.
Read MoreThe February update of the global LEI chartbook confirms that a broad-based upturn in global cyclical activity has been underway since the end of the third quarter last year. Granted, the number of LEIs currently in expansion—16—is slightly lower than at previous cyclical peaks. However, the February update and revisions point to a stabilising expansion at this rate, which remains robust overall.
The big question now is whether the upturn will falter in the face of the energy price shock ignited by the war in Iran.
Time will tell.
Read MoreI told you that I have a knack for updating these chartbooks at potential turning points—more specifically, whenever Mr. Trump decides to give his tariff Wheel of Fortune a spin. The ink had barely dried on the US Supreme Court’s decision ruling against the legality of Mr. Trump’s tariffs before the president vowed to impose an additional 10% tariff on top of the existing measures, later raising that figure to 15%. No one—least of all the president himself—knows whether these new tariffs will actually be implemented, or indeed what they would be applied to, given that the original tariffs are now supposedly illegal. It is little wonder that markets initially shrugged off the news on Friday. Then there is Iran, and the prospect of a sustained rise in oil prices. I am not perturbed by either development, though I would not wish to spend the next few days at an Iranian military installation, all the same.
The message from leading indicators is one of a broad-based and strengthening recovery in the global economy at the start of 2026, pointing to at least six months of robust coincident data ahead. With inflation still relatively benign in most key markets—for now—and further monetary easing in the pipeline from both the Fed and the BOE, the near-term outlook could be worse—much worse. Indeed, one could argue that, as far as global leading indicators are concerned, the current synchronised upturn depicted below—with China as the notable laggard—is about as good as it gets.
Read MoreThe disconnect between momentum in global macroeconomic leading indicators, benign conditions in financial markets, and volatile global geopolitics could hardly be greater at the moment. Granted, leading indicators will always lag the latest gyrations in global geopolitics—especially in a world where Mr. Trump is conducting the orchestra—but judging by the past 12 months, not even the potential collapse of NATO or a full-blown EU–U.S. trade war will knock risk assets off course for more than a few minutes. That is not because such events would lack significance, but because markets are now deeply wedded to the idea that Mr. Trump’s bark—on tariffs and otherwise—is much worse than his bite. Time, as always, will tell. The fundamental problem for markets is that lofty valuations and generally exuberant investor sentiment mean that any repricing in response to a less optimistic view of the world would be violent.
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