International Trade — Alpha.Sources

Global Leading Indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed; will it slip in rising oil prices?

The February update of the global LEI chartbook confirms that a broad-based upturn in global cyclical activity has been underway since the end of the third quarter last year. Granted, the number of LEIs currently in expansion—16—is slightly lower than at previous cyclical peaks. However, the February update and revisions point to a stabilising expansion at this rate, which remains robust overall.

The big question now is whether the upturn will falter in the face of the energy price shock ignited by the war in Iran.

Time will tell.

The siren song of dollar weakness

A weaker dollar seems to be the answer to everyone’s prayers at the moment—or more specifically, investors want exposure to the exceptionalism of U.S. capital markets without the currency exposure that comes with it. From the BIS, via FXStreet:

Many investors still want to remain invested in US equities (belief in US exceptionalism is alive and well!), but at the same time, they see growing risks for the US dollar, not least due to the US government’s attacks on the Federal Reserve. A significant depreciation of the dollar could reduce the returns on the actual equity investment or even wipe them out entirely. So what is the solution? Hedging against dollar weakness. Ultimately, these hedges are effectively bets on a weaker US currency and, if widely adopted, create selling pressure on the dollar."

Distract, Survive and Plan - How the World is Responding to Trump

Dani Rodrik is disappointed with the way the world is responding to Mr. Trump’s wrecking-ball foreign and economic policy. Professor Rodrik opens with the argument that Trump’s policies are “misguided, erratic, and self-defeating,” lamenting that the rest of the world is only feebly resisting—failing to recognize that “imperialism must always be challenged – not accommodated – and that [this] requires both power and purpose.”

AS Global Debt Chartbook, Q4-2024 - How long is a piece of string?

I’ve been sitting on this project for a while, but I’m finally ready to bring it above the fold. I’ve long wanted a straightforward overview of global debt levels—both public and private—and an easy way to compare them across countries, alongside their respective external dynamics. This is essential material for macro investors and researchers, yet it’s rare to find all the relevant information compiled in one place. The AS global debt chartbook is a first attempt at this. Like the LEI Chartbook, this project runs on Python code generated and compiled with the help of my trusty OpenAI assistant, with a few manual adjustments along the way. At the moment, it draws data from an Excel spreadsheet, but integrating APIs should be relatively straightforward down the line.

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