The February update of the global LEI chartbook confirms that a broad-based upturn in global cyclical activity has been underway since the end of the third quarter last year. Granted, the number of LEIs currently in expansion—16—is slightly lower than at previous cyclical peaks. However, the February update and revisions point to a stabilising expansion at this rate, which remains robust overall.
The big question now is whether the upturn will falter in the face of the energy price shock ignited by the war in Iran.
Time will tell.
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