Markets and Trading — Alpha.Sources

Global Leading Indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed; will it slip in rising oil prices?

The February update of the global LEI chartbook confirms that a broad-based upturn in global cyclical activity has been underway since the end of the third quarter last year. Granted, the number of LEIs currently in expansion—16—is slightly lower than at previous cyclical peaks. However, the February update and revisions point to a stabilising expansion at this rate, which remains robust overall.

The big question now is whether the upturn will falter in the face of the energy price shock ignited by the war in Iran.

Time will tell.

Global Leading Indicators, January 2026 - As good as it gets

I told you that I have a knack for updating these chartbooks at potential turning points—more specifically, whenever Mr. Trump decides to give his tariff Wheel of Fortune a spin. The ink had barely dried on the US Supreme Court’s decision ruling against the legality of Mr. Trump’s tariffs before the president vowed to impose an additional 10% tariff on top of the existing measures, later raising that figure to 15%. No one—least of all the president himself—knows whether these new tariffs will actually be implemented, or indeed what they would be applied to, given that the original tariffs are now supposedly illegal. It is little wonder that markets initially shrugged off the news on Friday. Then there is Iran, and the prospect of a sustained rise in oil prices. I am not perturbed by either development, though I would not wish to spend the next few days at an Iranian military installation, all the same.

The message from leading indicators is one of a broad-based and strengthening recovery in the global economy at the start of 2026, pointing to at least six months of robust coincident data ahead. With inflation still relatively benign in most key markets—for now—and further monetary easing in the pipeline from both the Fed and the BOE, the near-term outlook could be worse—much worse. Indeed, one could argue that, as far as global leading indicators are concerned, the current synchronised upturn depicted below—with China as the notable laggard—is about as good as it gets.

Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook, February 2026 - The Tangible Economy Strikes Back

The February 2026 edition of the S&P 500 equity sector rotation chartbook can be found here You can read more about the methodology and underlying assets here.

The SaaSpocalypse is upon us and with it comes the inevitable soul searching among investors who thought that a concentrated bet on US/global tech was a never-losing source of excess returns relative to the wider market. This looks to me like a long overdue sell-off in search of a narrative rather than the other way round, but it’s a pretty compelling narrative, all the same.

Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenFebruary 8, 2026equities, equity sectors

Global Leading Indicators, October 2025 - In the Pipe, Five by Five

Equities have wobbled a bit recently, without any obvious catalyst, aside from the most apparent one: they’re expensive by nearly all historical valuation measures. Many investors now appear concerned that the end of the U.S. government shutdown will trigger a deluge of data, potentially revealing that the economy is weaker than expected. That fear, however, doesn’t quite align with the sell-off in the December 2025 SOFR contract, which is casting doubt on what had once seemed a near-certain Fed rate cut in December.

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