As I wait for the September update of the OECD leading indicators—producing data for July and August—I thought I’d introduce another chartbook I've been working on, this time focused on equity sectors. It replicates a variation of a Bloomberg function I used to rely on when I had access to a terminal, the Relative Rotation Graphs - RRG. Since transitioning to Macrobond as the main source of data in my day job, I no longer look at this tool as frequently as I’d like. To that end, I’ve built my own version using the SPDR S&P 500 sector ETFs, and the SPY along with the VEU, to capture the relative performance of sectors and global equities. The total return data comes from Investing.com, where I have a personal premium subscription.
Read MoreThe June 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.
Global leading indicators improved further at the end of Q2, as markets and decision-makers in the real economy concluded that Mr. Trump’s tariff threats are more bark than bite. However, the U.S. President has since rekindled his appetite for tariffs, unveiling several high-profile measures targeting Asian economies, along with the weekend bombshell of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and Europe.
Read MoreGlobal leading indicators were stabilizing midway through Q2, exposing the tension between macroeconomic forecasts—many of which still anticipate a significant slowdown in the second half of the year—and incoming data and market signals that suggest the trade wars, or at least the most deleterious effect of this threat, are a thing of the past. The White House will bluster, but is likely to avoid imposing growth- or market-damaging policies on a sustained basis. Underlying this assumption is the expectation that the U.S. administration will not jeopardize the privileges conferred by issuing the world’s dominant reserve currency and commanding the deepest and most liquid capital markets globally.
Read MoreThe April 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.
Global leading indicators were hanging on for dear life in April strained by the shock of President Trump’s tariff measures. A rebound from current levels that keeps the cyclical upturn alive is not without precedent, but it is rare—and historically, such rebounds have offered little comfort to investors. Portfolios with high sensitivity to the global macro cycle are likely to face continued weakness.
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