The September 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.
One point on the methodology that I may not have made entirely clear: the aggregate LEI diffusion referred to below—and shown in the first charts of the chartbook—is not the same as a standard diffusion index. It is calculated as the sum of two figures: the number of LEIs that are high and rising minus those that are high and falling, and the number of LEIs that are low and rising minus those that are low and falling. This approach is designed to provide a more accurate turning point signal than a simple diffusion index. For the September 2025 edition specifically, the value for the G20 LEI, shown on page three of the chartbook, has been extrapolated to reflect a small rise. This mirrors the increase in the G7 indicator, as the G20 value had not yet been updated when the data was pulled from the OECD.
I seem to have a knack for releasing these chartbooks just as markets are hit with a curveball. The August edition came out in the wake of the soft August payrolls report, which opened the door to a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve and rattled investor sentiment with renewed concerns about a potential slowdown—or even a recession—in the U.S. economy.
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