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US Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook, May 2026 - The Unholy Alliance

The May 2026 edition of the US equity sector chartbook can be found here, with accompanying portfolio statistics here

I have made quite a few changes to the chartbook since the last time I ran it. I have changed my data provider from Investing.com to SheetsFinance, which makes it much easier to update the spreadsheets feeding the Python scripts that generate this, and any other market-data chartbooks, that I am using. The data now reflect one-year trailing total returns with daily observations—approximately 250 trading days per year. I have also added a cross-correlation rotation matrix, which tracks shifts in sector correlations with IVV, along with chart plots of rolling correlation Z-scores.

Global Leading Indicators, September 2025 - Tariffs, what tariffs?

The September 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.

One point on the methodology that I may not have made entirely clear: the aggregate LEI diffusion referred to below—and shown in the first charts of the chartbook—is not the same as a standard diffusion index. It is calculated as the sum of two figures: the number of LEIs that are high and rising minus those that are high and falling, and the number of LEIs that are low and rising minus those that are low and falling. This approach is designed to provide a more accurate turning point signal than a simple diffusion index. For the September 2025 edition specifically, the value for the G20 LEI, shown on page three of the chartbook, has been extrapolated to reflect a small rise. This mirrors the increase in the G7 indicator, as the G20 value had not yet been updated when the data was pulled from the OECD.

I seem to have a knack for releasing these chartbooks just as markets are hit with a curveball. The August edition came out in the wake of the soft August payrolls report, which opened the door to a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve and rattled investor sentiment with renewed concerns about a potential slowdown—or even a recession—in the U.S. economy.

Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook, September 2025 - Running hot, and narrow

The September 2025 edition of the S&P 500 equity sector rotation chartbook can be found here. You can read more about the methodology and underlying assets here. This chartbook has been prepared with 1y total return, which is a departure from the first version with six-month returns. I honestly didn’t think about this when I pulled the data from Investing.com, as I normally work with 1y total return data for portfolio construction and the like. This shouldn’t make a huge difference to the main conclusions, though in some cases it might obviously shift the sectors around in the key diagram, compared to a six-month return framework. If you have a preference for future versions of this chartbook, let me know.

AI, Markets and Trading, Corporate Financeclaus vistesenSeptember 27, 2025equities, equity rotation, chartbooks

Equity sector rotation chartbook Aug 2025 - Order is restored, for now

As I wait for the September update of the OECD leading indicators—producing data for July and August—I thought I’d introduce another chartbook I've been working on, this time focused on equity sectors. It replicates a variation of a Bloomberg function I used to rely on when I had access to a terminal, the Relative Rotation Graphs - RRG. Since transitioning to Macrobond as the main source of data in my day job, I no longer look at this tool as frequently as I’d like. To that end, I’ve built my own version using the SPDR S&P 500 sector ETFs, and the SPY along with the VEU, to capture the relative performance of sectors and global equities. The total return data comes from Investing.com, where I have a personal premium subscription.

Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenAugust 31, 2025equities, equity sectors, chartbooks

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