It’s been a week on the wild side in markets, though amid all the confusion and commotion the main story is simple. The uplifting vaccine news from Pfizer has invited markets to consider how a world without the virus looks like. Taking the initial reaction at face-value, this is a world basking in the glory of reflation—and accelerating nominal GDP growth—higher long-term interest rates and a sustained rotation from growth to cyclical and value stocks. Let’s start with the obvious point. There is now a chasm between those basing their world view on an effective vaccine, and the end of Covid-19, and those staring down the barrel of a still- uncontrollable spread of the virus, and associated lockdowns to contain it. As far as the economy goes, forecasters now have to pass Fitzgerald’s test for a first-rate intelligence. The near-term outlook for developed economies is not pretty, and as restrictions encroach on December, the Q4 GDP forecasts are sinking without a trace. We’re currently living in a start-stop economy. The question economists have to answer is whether this situation has to be assumed for 2021? It’s certainly possible in Q1 and Q2, but Pfizer’s news has thankfully made such an outcome less likely. The problem is timing and whether we have to be on lockdown-lite through parts of H1, as we wait for the ‘shot’. The best case scenario is that the population at large gets the shot in the first half of the 2021, but that’s a Hail Mary. Take it from me, a professional economist whose day job it is to put numbers on the state of economy over the next six- to-12 months, we don’t know.
Read MoreJudging by the latest virus numbers in Europe, and government announcements to contain it, markets may soon have to read up on the math of lockdown economics. Before we get to that, though, investors have been locked in deep thought over the impact of the U.S. presidential elections, which seems to converge on trying to price in the consequences of a Biden victory and a “blue wave”. As I explained last week, investors seem to have concluded that this is good outcome for risk assets, though as I argued at the time, this isn’t entirely clear to me. To illuminate this further, it’s useful to consider how markets perceive a Blue wave in the context of the dollar and the U.S. bond market. As it turns out, the consensus position isn’t entirely clear, which is a hint. If markets can’t figure out how a Democratic sweep will impact the dollar and bonds, it’s difficult to have any view on how it would impact equities. The dollar is particularly interesting. It seems to me that analysts initially pinned recent weakness—effectively since April—on the inherent political risks associated with a Biden presidency, though it has since morphed into a bullish catalyst in the context of the expectation of surge in fiscal stimulus, funded by a benevolent and compliant Fed. Why this latter should necessarily be bearish for the dollar isn’t clear to me, especially not if it led to stronger growth in the U.S. compared to the rest of the world. By contrast, the idea, voiced in some corners of the market, that the U.S. is on its way to print away its exorbitant privilege—in effect losing its reserve currency status—seems even more ludicrous to me, even in world where China is now emerging as a potential adversary.
Read MoreIt’s fair to say that markets are now starting to pay some attention to the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, and its potential implications for the price of key asset classes. As far the result goes, the incumbent Mr. Trump looks like a sitting duck. Mind you, that wouldn’t have been my position a month ago. I have been prejudiced towards the idea that a hapless Joe Biden and a “silent majority” in favor of Trump—or in opposition to the Democrats—would carry the president to a second term. Mr. Biden still seems hapless to me, and I suspect the silent voter is still on the president’s side. But neither of these tailwinds are likely to be enough to protect the incumbent from what is an increasingly disastrous performance in the face of the pandemic. Sure, we can argue that Trump has been dealt an unfortunate hand this year, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. My predictions notwithstanding, the simple reason a Biden presidency is worth contemplating is because it is the outcome that markets are now entertaining. Recently, this view has been augmented with the taster in the form of the idea of a Democratic sweep of the Senate and the House. To the extent that it is possible to summarise markets’ assumptions about what a triumph for the Democrats will look like, it seems to be a relatively positive story, for now. Once Republicans have been put out to pasture, the counterproductive wrangling over the next stimulus bill will make way for a huge fiscal push in Q1, and the Fed will welcome such action with unlimited and soothing QE. As analysts from BoFA put it succinctly on Friday:
Read MoreI this video I discuss patriotism and nationalism in Europe and in the U.K., using the Brexit referendum as a case study. I open the video by reading an excerpt from a recent article in the Point magazine, in which editor Jon Baskin interviews Princeton professor George Kateb about his writings, ideas and thoughts on patriotism. The views expressed here are mine and mine alone, and as I say in the introduction, I am using Mr. Kateb’s arguments out of context, which is to say, I am using the very specific points he makes to Baskin as an amouche bouche for my discussion. I am not familiar with Mr. Kateb’s writings at large. Though I don’t mention him directly, I have also been inspired by recent comments by Douglas Murray, and conversations between him and other interviewers, relating to the oddness of being ashamed of one's history and heritage. I apologise for the cover of my notebook protruding annoyingly in the bottom of the frame.
Thanks, as always, for watching.
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