October intensified the regime shift already visible in September. The month began with sovereign bonds still absorbing the combined effects of renewed monetary tightening, heavy supply, fiscal anxiety and a worsening energy shock. Ten-year US Treasury yields remained above 5%, long-dated European yields stayed under pressure, and the stronger dollar tightened conditions further for energy importers and emerging markets. Oil extended its extraordinary advance, while gold weakened and the previously dominant AI complex lost momentum. Pictet describes the preceding bond sell-off as the largest weekly Treasury decline on record, with ten-year yields above 5.2%, thirty-year yields above 5.5% and oil up almost 18% over the review period.
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