I am still willing to give Mr. Trump the benefit of the doubt. We have no actual policymaking to judge yet, and at least some of the people he is surrounding himself with look capable. I admit, however, that the burden of evidence is getting heavy. The president-elect's tweets, on their own, are evidence that he has tendency to act long before thinking. Last week's presser also provided a timely reminder that we are dealing with a volatile character. I understand that infuriating "soft" liberals, such as yours truly, is exactly what Mr. Trump and his strategists want. I have no doubt that the incoming administration's communication "style" is carefully planned. The base loves it! But problems are brewing, chiefly among which is the growing chasm between Mr. Trump and the intelligence apparatus upon which he will so desperately depend for policymaking when he takes office.
Read MoreI occasionally do small videos for work, which are used as marketing material really to get our name out. But they are also, of course, aimed to inform, at least to some extent. As such, I thought they might be interesting to people reading this blog. Catch my latest contribution below, and if you want to browse all the videos we have put out check out the main Vimeo page here.
Read MoreAnother start to a new year another bout of anxiety over China, although I concede that the collateral damage on other markets have so far been far modest compared with the panic in Q1 last year. The bogey man is the same as in 2016. Capital outflows are accelerating, currency volatility has surged and the once bulging FX reserve coffers are leaking fast. These are ominous signs in a traditional emerging market macro-style framework, but I am not sure that this is the correct prism through which to look at China.
Read MoreWe have barely recovered from the hangover acquired on New Year's Eve, and I am already tired of the memes and narratives being used to label 2017. I like to believe that I have a decent bullshit-filter, but I have realised that it needs a serious upgrade in the wake of recent geopolitical festivities. Call it the January blues, but the idea of re-engaging with the Trump/Brexit crap-shooters doesn’t exactly fill me with joy. The upshot, I suppose, is that it forces me to keep the eye on the ball. In that vein, the tradition of financial market analysis at the dawn of a new year suggests that I present a list of list of 2017 (non)predictions and themes. But I won’t. This already has been done ad nauseum by other prominent members of the peanut gallery. Instead, I want to pick up where I left before I dialled down for the Christmas break.
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