The first quarter was a pleasant one for investors. It was difficult not to make money on the long side in equities, while it remained slim pickings for bears. Bonds and credit rallied too, albeit less vigorously, and commodities also pushed ahead. The USD-bull story, however, fell by the wayside. My two first charts put some numbers to this. The first shows the total return-to-date for the main asset classes, and the second adjusts for volatility. Equities did the heavy lifting—with EM on top and Japan trailing—but the 8.2% jump in gold is also interesting. Not many have really talked about this, but it has benefited the portfolio in an environment where its core equity positions has been left behind by roaring benchmark indices. High yield credit in the U.S. has also pushed higher without much ado, while commodities have trailed. U.S. govvies have underperformed although, the 10-year bond reasserted itself towards the end of the quarter. Finally, king dollar was demoted to Jester.
Read MoreI am short on time this weekend, which is probably a good thing given that I have really struggled to share the excitement over last week's events. We had the swoon of the S&P 500 and its first 1% daily decline in more than <insert number here> days on Tuesday. Overall the index had temerity to post a 1.4% decline on the week, the biggest fall since the first week of November. It was with a tinge of embarrassment that I watched the overreaction of my fellow equity investors on both sides. For the bulls, this was the buy-the-dip of a lifetime and for the bears it was the signal that the bull market had come to an end. In truth of course, it was evidence of neither, although I suspect that the bulls will be the ones sleeping with most unease.
Read MoreWeaker oil prices, a Fed rate hike, and Geert Wilders' anti-EU party swooping in as the second-biggest party in the Dutch parliamentary elections. You would have thought that these events last week would have been enough to scare investors. But headlines can be deceiving. Despite the weakness in oil, the price hit strong resistance at its 200dma, and snapped back in the latter part of last week. The tone of Mrs. Yellen's statement was just right to maintain markets' faith that the Fed will only gently push borrowing costs higher. In other words, risks assets wanted a dovish hike and decided that this is what they got. And finally, the key story in the Dutch elections was not that Mr. Wilders made headway.
Read MoreThe sharp fall in oil prices was the most interesting market news last week. It sends a signal that investors are waking up the fact that the brittle OPEC output deal always was going to be challenged by U.S. producers restarting their drills as prices rose. I am no expert, but this does not come as a surprise to me. OPEC is an unstable alliance, and U.S. producers are governed by one thing and one thing only, price. Whatever detente exists in the global oil market, I am pretty sure that it is a fragile one. A significant leg lower in oil could be significant for a number of reasons. It could herald the speedy end of the "reflation trade," which would suit me well. But if it morphs into something more dramatic, we're back to the story of stress in energy high yield debt, default risks, and perhaps liquidity/fund closure risk in the broader corporate bond market. I am not sure that would suit the portfolio one bit.
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