The uproar over the Snap IPO is a good metaphor for the growing disdain in some parts of the market towards the ever-rising stock market. I explored the uber-bearish meme here, and it remains strong as ever. The bears have thrown everything at the market; extended valuations, stretched technicals, a looming "Trump disappointment", a hard landing in China, or a breakup of the Eurozone. The louder their objections, though, the stronger the rally has become. I have found myself in a similar trap since Q4, when my models started to suggest that I should fade the rally in equities. It has been a costly position in terms of relative performance, but at least I haven't suffered the slings and arrows of those who have been short outright.
Read MoreIn this show I argue that paying less attention to Mr. Trump and the White House probably won't do you any harm. It might even do you good. I also respond to the idea that no credible alternatives are currently being offered to the surge in new populism and its policy suggestions. I offer three concrete proposals. Finally, I try to make an impossible transition to a brief discussion about financial markets. I will put up some charts in the next few days, but I am not sure that much has changed. The queue of bears at the abattoir is long as ever.
Read MoreI am pressed for time this weekend, so instead of coming up with something entirely new, I thought that I'd do an addendum to my last post. I thought I dug relatively deep in that essay about whether global economic growth is accelerating. Obviously, it isn't easy to a give a clear answer to that question—we're doing economics after all—but the evidence from headline leading indicators suggest that the global economy picked up speed at the end of last year. Regular punters at this space, and my friends in the market, though, weren't impressed. Specifically, I was told that I was neglecting the spread between hard and soft data.
Read MoreI have a feeling that equity markets are setting a trap for investors, but I can't quite figure out which kind it is. Will the last bull be sucked in before the disappointment sets in, or are we now on a sustainable glide path towards new highs with maximum frustration for the sceptics? We didn't get any decisive clues last week. Equity volatility rose a tad, but ranges remain incredibly tight across a number of key asset markets. False breaks are guaranteed, and vol-sellers will continue to play cat and mouse with the heroes trying to straddle the ranges, playing for a breakout.
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