Whether you’re an evolutionary biologist, cultural sociologist or a neoclassical economist, the study of human fertility behaviour can be boiled down to an interplay between two immovable forces: the quantum and tempo effect. The first treats the fundamental question of reproduction; how many children to have, and how much resources to invest in each of them. In its simplest form, the quantum effect is the study of how much, if at all, women exert control over the quantity of offspring they produce. The extent to which they do—and almost all disciplines agree that they do in most social contexts—the analysis focuses on the conditions that determine the number of children, and how much resources that are devoted to each of them. It is an analysis of trade-offs, concentrated on the trade-off between the quantity and quality of offspring. How this balance is achieved represents one of the most crucial processes in the study of reproduction, aggregate fertility, and the demographic transition.
Read MoreI don’t have a definitive answer to the question posed above, but I think it is fair to say that markets traded last week as if the answer is: ‘yes’. In Europe, bund yields plunged below 1.5%, after touching almost 2% earlier in the month, and Dec-22 euribor futures are now pricing-in 50bp less tightening than immediately after the June ECB meeting. The catalyst: a below-consensus PMI report and news that Russia is slowly, but surely turning off gas supply to Europe. In the UK, bond yields have fallen too, in response to a below-consensus core CPI print. And finally, in the US, Jerome Powell’s comment, in a testimony to Congress, that a recession is ‘a possibility’ as the Fed embarks on a series of rate hikes, and QT, similarly drove down bond yields across the curve.
Read MoreSpare a thought for the Fed. The hope that inflation had peaked in March was brutally dashed last week as headline inflation printed a new high, of 8.6%. A 50bp rate hike this month is now all but certain, with many forecasters looking for 75bp. We could also spare a thought for the BoE. The Old Lady told markets last time in convened that it expects inflation to rise above 10% by Q4, that the economy could well fall into recession, but that it will continue hiking anyway. Or maybe, we should spare a thought for the ECB. Last week, Ms. Lagarde informed investors that the central bank intends to raise rates by 50bp, at least, between now and September, followed by a "sustained and gradual" rate hikes. Yields and spreads rose on the day, likely more than the ECB would have expected, let alone liked, and the euro weakened. The central bank we shouldn't spare a thought for, however, is the BOJ, apparently.
Read MoreIt’s pretty rough out there in financial markets. Stocks are still falling, notwithstanding the odd counter rally here and there, and yields are still rising, leaving investors with little in the way of a place to hide. I think it is relatively simple to explain what’s going on, in general terms. Before the pandemic, markets were propelled higher by low inflation, low bond yields and plenty of monetary accommodation. Running the economy hot was not just relatively cheap—in terms of the classic trade-off between stocking growth and employment and inflation—it was the right thing to do. I mean, you wouldn’t want unemployment to rise, would you? The initial roaring rebound in markets from the initial Covid shock in spring 2020, promised a quick return to “normal”. It didn’t last.
Read More