I am coming into 2024 in a decent position. My MinVar equity portfolio, designed to extract the best from both worlds in the perennial battle between growth and value, has done largely what it is supposed to do. It has offered positive, but below-beta, returns with below-beta volatility, the latter which means that your humble blogging investment analyst has been able to sleep calmly at night. In bonds, I moved my exposure onto the front early in 2023 in line with the yield curve inversion. At this point I see no reason to change that strategy. Why buy negative carry in duration when you don’t have to? There will be a time to take a strong bet on duration, but I can’t really see that point until either the front-end has collapsed under the weight of global central bank easing, or unless the curve rinses everyone by bear-steepening sufficiently to restore a positive roll and carry in the long bond. In other words, I don’t see any reason to buy duration as long as the curve is still deeply inverted.
Read MoreThe Sancerrois had defended their town valiantly. Artillery and bombs had been pounding the walls of the city early in the occupation, but to little effect. The enemy had suffered more so than the villagers during these attacks, despite the menacing presence of canons, explosives, slings and other war machinery. But the success of repelling enemy advances would soon give way to despair and destitution. The siege became a slow poison, seeping into the very bones of the town.
Read MoreDetective Isabella Ramirez leaned against the balustrade of her Santiago apartment, the city below twinkling like a sea of stars against the canvas of the Andean night. The rhythmic beat of salsa music drifted from distant clubs, a reminder of Santiago's vibrant pulse. Yet, tonight, a different melody lingered in the air too—something ominous and cold, carried down from the very peaks of the mountains.
Isabella's phone buzzed, cutting through the night's tranquility. The voice on the other end belonged to Captain Mateo Ruiz, a grizzled veteran who had seen Santiago's underbelly in all its shades.
"We caught one." He said.
"It's a big one."
"Anyone I know?" Isabella replied.
"I think so. It's Fuentes…Alejandro Fuentes."
"The art dealer?!" Isabella said.
"Mmm" Ruiz mumbled.
Read MoreDear Santa Claws,
Greetings from the Monsterland! I hope this letter finds you in good cheer and surrounded by the warmth of your workshop. My name is Sunny Sprout, a little white and yellow monster; well I am actually not that little, but I am not big either, so…
This year, I've been on my best behavior. I've helped my fellow monster friends and family. We've been practicing our cutest roars and perfecting our snowball-throwing skills for the upcoming Snowy Spectacle Festival. I thought that was very fun. Now, Santa Claws, I know you're used to dealing with elves and reindeer, and those other those other things called hoomans. But I thought I'd drop you a letter with my wish list, just in case.
Read More