Investors are beginning to get seriously interested in the idea that the BOJ and the ECB will change the composition of their bond purchases to steepen the yield curve. In effect, this would be the opposite of the Fed’s Operation Twist, which saw QE purchases concentrated on the long-end, chiefly to lower the yield on mortgage-backed securities. I think this story, at least partly, is to blame for the recent nudge higher in global bond yields. But we will know soon enough. This week's BOJ meeting should give us a hint of whether this narrative has any legs.
Read MoreGlobal economic momentum is modest at best, equities and bonds are overvalued, and while allocating your funds entirely to gold, cash and shorts is enticing, it isn’t possible for the majority of money managers. What are investors to do then? The ranking of creditors and equity in the capital structure suggest that high grade corporate bonds—and sovereigns—is the optimal allocation. When the goings get tough, the equity is wiped out, but as creditor you are at least assured a recovery on your investment; even if it may be a slim one. This time could be different, however.
Read MoreInterest rates were first slashed to zero, then came successive rounds of QE, and most recently the ECB has led the world's central banks into the netherworld of negative interest rates. Neither of these tools, however, have worked completely according to central banks’ and governments’ wishes. Unless you have been living under a rock, you will have noticed that "helicopter money" has been touted as the next policy tool which central banks will deploy in their attempt to reach their "targets."
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