Posts in Global Economy
Let's stick to what we know

Investors have found it difficult to resist the temptation to become armchair generals in response to the recent flurry of geopolitical volatility. I have some sympathy for that. Political experts told us that Mr. Trump would mark the beginning of a new U.S. isolationism, and even speculated about the emergence of a new Monroe doctrine. The president's "America First" discourse, the statement that NATO is obsolete, and the rapprochement to Russia were all pivots watched ominously by other world leaders, especially in continental Europe.

This story, however, increasingly feels like ancient history.

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Asia, Global Economy, Markets and Trading, Politics and societyclaus vistesenDonald Trump, North Korea, Syria, war, equities, Spoos, S&P 500, emerging markets
Who will blink first?

I have a feeling that equity markets are setting a trap for investors, but I can't quite figure out which kind it is. Will the last bull be sucked in before the disappointment sets in, or are we now on a sustainable glide path towards new highs with maximum frustration for the sceptics? We didn't get any decisive clues last week. Equity volatility rose a tad, but ranges remain incredibly tight across a number of key asset markets. False breaks are guaranteed, and vol-sellers will continue to play cat and mouse with the heroes trying to straddle the ranges, playing for a breakout. 

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China, Economics, Business, and Finance , Emerging economies, Eurozone watch, Global Economy, US Economy, Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenSyntel, equities, MSCI World, leading indicators
Manipulate This - What Really Drives Global Capital Flows

I am generally a tolerant guy, but when it comes to a debate on international capital flows I am a raving lunatic. I have no time for amateurs, and it is my clear impression that president Trump’s trade advisors, and those who agree with them, are just that. You need to understand where I am coming from, though. Specifically, you need to read my two essays about QE, population ageing and the global paradox of thrift. Here is a summary if you don’t want to read the whole thing; read it carefully.

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Asia, Emerging economies, Eurozone watch, Economic Theory and Acadmics, Global Economy, International Trade, International Trade and Economics , US Economyclaus vistesenglobal imbalances, global ageing, global economy, ageing, ageing populations, Germany, Japan
Can the Illusion be Sustained?

Another week, another hand grenade thrown in U.S. politics and international affairs. President Trump and his advisors believe they have the wind in their sails, and they're determined to make as much headway as possible. We all have our opinions on this, but as investors we need to keep our eyes on the ball. And the situation is getting interesting. Spoos are up 23% since the lows of the Q1 panic in 2016, and it has soared 10% alone since Mr. Trump snatched the elections.

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Global Economy, Markets and Trading, Politics and society, US politics and societyclaus vistesenDonald Trump, Spoos, Barron's