Alpha.Sources — Alpha Sources.CV

Global Leading Indicators, April 2025 - Hanging on

The April 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.

Global leading indicators were hanging on for dear life in April strained by the shock of President Trump’s tariff measures. A rebound from current levels that keeps the cyclical upturn alive is not without precedent, but it is rare—and historically, such rebounds have offered little comfort to investors. Portfolios with high sensitivity to the global macro cycle are likely to face continued weakness.

Global Leading Indicators, March 2025 - The world before tariffs, and after

The March 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here. I’ve added a few new elements: a chart showing the G20 LEI and its three-year rolling Z-score; a comparison between headline LEI diffusion and global equities; and a chart of the first three principal components of the LEIs. Of these, the first component is the most significant—as I’ll explain below.

As the name suggests, leading indicators are designed to provide early signals on the business cycle, and by extension, on the cyclical component in financial markets and the most cyclical individual sectors. However, there are times when turning points or events disrupt the underlying conditions so abruptly that they effectively reset the clock. Trump’s tariff shock—and its implications for global goods and capital mobility—is one such event. But for the record: what did the global economy look like on the eve of this tariff shock? As it turns out, it was doing quite well.

Global Leading Indicators Feb 2025 - In the Pipe, for Now

It’s been a while since I’ve been writing about markets and the economy. The reason, as I touched on earlier this month, is that I’ve been working on some scripts—with the help of my now trusty and indispensable ChatGPT+ subscription—to automate chart generation for the indicators and data I use and look at regularly. The first of these, on the OECD’s suite of leading indicators, is now done in its beta version, so let’s get started.

The February 2025 version of the chartbook can be found here. It is updated with the February values for the OECD leading indicators in amplitude- and seasonally-adjusted format. The coincident indicator is based on CPB’s data, and is most recently updated for January.

Things to think about #9 - A Millennial's Manifesto (audio), Greenland, Neoliberalism, and Low-calorie information

My “Millennial’s Manifesto” is up as an audio essay on Apple Podcast. Go have a listen! Also consider subscribing to the podcast channel. The cadence of these audio essays is slow, one essay every one or two months, so you won’t be overwhelmed by content. I know many people prefer to listen to their content rather than reading (more about that below), and my decision to start publishing audio essays is my attempt to cater for that. Thanks again for reading and listening.

02

Alpha Sources Blog