Posts in Markets and Trading
Widening the opportunity set

One the more enjoyable things about reading Macro Man in recently is that the author's mood, as well as the spirit of the more battle hardened of his commenters, have been lifted significantly. This is not because they necessarily wanted Mr. Trump to move into the White House, but rather because the political shock in the U.S. appears to have brought back good old fashioned, active, macro trading. 

I am not sure it ever left, but I sympathise with the idea that the change in political winds in the U.S., and Europe, will unlock hitherto barren markets for swashbuckling macro investors. The added joy of such a story would be that the index huggers and risk-parity brigade would see their clout diminished somewhat. After all, bond yields are now rising again, and next year's political constellation in Europe could well create a number of new currencies to dabble in. I doubt Macro Man will be that lucky, though, but one can always dream I suppose

Read More
International Trade and Economics , International Trade, Global Economy, Markets and Trading, UK, US Economyclaus vistesenDonald Trump, equities, free trade, Germany, S&P 500, bonds, Banco Sabadell, Restaurant Group, Wells Fargo, Home Depot
Equities Finally Get the Memo

After a week's break, and a detour, I am back in the saddle for a busy run-in to Christmas. The main market mover of note, while trawling the museums and bars of Paris, was that global equities finally showed a bit of weakness. The MSCI World slid 1.8% last week, down 4.8% from its peak in August, which means that the index is flat as a pancake year-to-date. A belated reaction to the recent mini tantrum in bond markets, or a knee-jerk reaction to tighter polls across the pond, are probably the lazy strategist's reason for the sell off. But it has been coming regardless. 

Read More
Economics, Business, and Finance , European politics and society, Global Economy, Markets and Trading, UK, US politics and societyclaus vistesenBrexit, equities, put/call ratio, S&P 500, leading indicators
The old maid of Q3 earnings

In equities, the headline indices were largely directionless last but there was a lot of action underneath the surface thanks to firms in the U.S. report Q3 earnings. On that note, the season has so far been unkind to your humble scribe; indeed it seems that I have managed to get myself stuck with nothing other than the old maid this quarter. There can be no better way to re-introduce the Mark to Market section than to report how yours truly was in front of the queue at the proctologist last week. The portfolio was thoroughly rear-ended by the calamity of Syntel Inc earnings. 

Read More
Markets and Trading, International Trade and Economics , Global Economyclaus vistesenSyntel, China, EURAUD, Australia, AUD/USD
Treading water

Last week was docile compared with the fun and games we were treated to earlier this month; no imminent Lehman moment at a major European bank and no flash crash in the GBP or other G4 currencies. Still, we had a number of interesting moves in the major asset classes and indices. The continued squeeze in yields probably was the stand-out move. Starting with the benchmark, the U.S. 10-year yield broke range and a move to 2% is starting to look like a good bet in my view. For once, it appears that can we apply relatively plain-vanilla macroeconomic narrative here. Inflation in the U.S.—and indeed globally—is nudging higher and the Fed intends to act accordingly. The slightly more cynical interpretation is that the Federales are desperate to get another hike in before the end of the year, but that underlying fundamentals haven't really changed that much.

Read More
Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenequities, bonds, EURUSD, oil, commodities, Trump, U.S. elections