I am still willing to give Mr. Trump the benefit of the doubt. We have no actual policymaking to judge yet, and at least some of the people he is surrounding himself with look capable. I admit, however, that the burden of evidence is getting heavy. The president-elect's tweets, on their own, are evidence that he has tendency to act long before thinking. Last week's presser also provided a timely reminder that we are dealing with a volatile character. I understand that infuriating "soft" liberals, such as yours truly, is exactly what Mr. Trump and his strategists want. I have no doubt that the incoming administration's communication "style" is carefully planned. The base loves it! But problems are brewing, chiefly among which is the growing chasm between Mr. Trump and the intelligence apparatus upon which he will so desperately depend for policymaking when he takes office.
Read MoreWe have barely recovered from the hangover acquired on New Year's Eve, and I am already tired of the memes and narratives being used to label 2017. I like to believe that I have a decent bullshit-filter, but I have realised that it needs a serious upgrade in the wake of recent geopolitical festivities. Call it the January blues, but the idea of re-engaging with the Trump/Brexit crap-shooters doesn’t exactly fill me with joy. The upshot, I suppose, is that it forces me to keep the eye on the ball. In that vein, the tradition of financial market analysis at the dawn of a new year suggests that I present a list of list of 2017 (non)predictions and themes. But I won’t. This already has been done ad nauseum by other prominent members of the peanut gallery. Instead, I want to pick up where I left before I dialled down for the Christmas break.
Read MoreEquity bears were further humiliated last week. Even investors positioned cautiously had to suffer the pain of watching the market destroy their relative performance. If you're coming into the Christmas period with a good bag of returns, it won't matter much. But if you have underperformed, it will sting to watch the market run away with the prize into year-end [1]. Luckily, the portfolio falls in the former category this year; no matter what happens 2016 will be a good year. The shorts in FTSE and Home Depot have been scathing in recent weeks, and the so far ill-advised punt on Syntel also remains a severe drag. But the overweight in financials via Wells Fargo and Sabadell, and the push higher in Japanese equities, has spared yours truly the worst embarrassment in the amateurs' peanut gallery.
Read MoreOne the more enjoyable things about reading Macro Man in recently is that the author's mood, as well as the spirit of the more battle hardened of his commenters, have been lifted significantly. This is not because they necessarily wanted Mr. Trump to move into the White House, but rather because the political shock in the U.S. appears to have brought back good old fashioned, active, macro trading.
I am not sure it ever left, but I sympathise with the idea that the change in political winds in the U.S., and Europe, will unlock hitherto barren markets for swashbuckling macro investors. The added joy of such a story would be that the index huggers and risk-parity brigade would see their clout diminished somewhat. After all, bond yields are now rising again, and next year's political constellation in Europe could well create a number of new currencies to dabble in. I doubt Macro Man will be that lucky, though, but one can always dream I suppose
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