I am pressed for time this weekend, so instead of coming up with something entirely new, I thought that I'd do an addendum to my last post. I thought I dug relatively deep in that essay about whether global economic growth is accelerating. Obviously, it isn't easy to a give a clear answer to that question—we're doing economics after all—but the evidence from headline leading indicators suggest that the global economy picked up speed at the end of last year. Regular punters at this space, and my friends in the market, though, weren't impressed. Specifically, I was told that I was neglecting the spread between hard and soft data.
Read MoreI have a feeling that equity markets are setting a trap for investors, but I can't quite figure out which kind it is. Will the last bull be sucked in before the disappointment sets in, or are we now on a sustainable glide path towards new highs with maximum frustration for the sceptics? We didn't get any decisive clues last week. Equity volatility rose a tad, but ranges remain incredibly tight across a number of key asset markets. False breaks are guaranteed, and vol-sellers will continue to play cat and mouse with the heroes trying to straddle the ranges, playing for a breakout.
Read MoreGlobal equities continue to mock the bears. The MSCI World was up 2.6% on the month in January, comfortably outperforming yours truly, which had to contend with 1%. The MSCI World is now up a cool a 8.1% since November, and while we saw faint signs last of weakness last week, it was really only a minor flesh wound for the bulls. Indeed, Friday's NFP number was a real treat for everyone. A solid headline and a poor wage print equal goldilocks and joy for both bond holders and equity bulls. As so often before, Spoos and Blues carried the day.
Read MoreAnother week, another hand grenade thrown in U.S. politics and international affairs. President Trump and his advisors believe they have the wind in their sails, and they're determined to make as much headway as possible. We all have our opinions on this, but as investors we need to keep our eyes on the ball. And the situation is getting interesting. Spoos are up 23% since the lows of the Q1 panic in 2016, and it has soared 10% alone since Mr. Trump snatched the elections.
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