I’ve been sitting on this project for a while, but I’m finally ready to bring it above the fold. I’ve long wanted a straightforward overview of global debt levels—both public and private—and an easy way to compare them across countries, alongside their respective external dynamics. This is essential material for macro investors and researchers, yet it’s rare to find all the relevant information compiled in one place. The AS global debt chartbook is a first attempt at this. Like the LEI Chartbook, this project runs on Python code generated and compiled with the help of my trusty OpenAI assistant, with a few manual adjustments along the way. At the moment, it draws data from an Excel spreadsheet, but integrating APIs should be relatively straightforward down the line.
Read MoreThe June 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.
Global leading indicators improved further at the end of Q2, as markets and decision-makers in the real economy concluded that Mr. Trump’s tariff threats are more bark than bite. However, the U.S. President has since rekindled his appetite for tariffs, unveiling several high-profile measures targeting Asian economies, along with the weekend bombshell of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and Europe.
Read MoreThe conversation around AI has settled into a predictable cycle: the announcement of a reality-altering feature from a new model, followed by a scientific study reminding us that AI is neither truly intelligent nor capable of reasoning, and may, in fact, be making us dumber. I should be upfront: I think AI models are great. I use them as much as I can, I try to learn with them, and I believe they will fundamentally transform how we work. In this essay, I’ll explain why.
Read MoreI was pool side at the start of the month which means, in my case, the time to run through one of the larger audiobooks in my Audible library in large uninterrupted chunks while sipping a cold drink. My choice on this occasion was Nick Lane’s Oxygen: The Molecule that made the World. The book travels far and wide, and it’s well worth the time, though parts of it are rather technical for those of us who aren’t biological chemists, despite Lane’s best efforts to make the content accessible. I dozed off more than once midway through — as one tends to do when horizontal at the pool — and had to rewind and restart a few chapters.
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