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Equity Chartbooks, June 2026 - How to escape the AI singularity?

I have augmented my US equity sector chartbook with two more similar chartbooks; a simple one with the four major factors—value, momentum and minimum volatility—and one with global country equity indices ex-the US. The factor chartbook uses the iShares global factor ETFs—IWVL, IWMO, MVOL—and VEU for a non-US factor. The global chartbook also uses iShares country ETFs. I have also corrected some errors in the cross-calculation statistics and the corresponding Z-scores.

The latest versions of the chartbooks can be found here (US sectors), here (global beta ex-US) and here (Factors), with there accompanying portfolio statistics here here and here.

Markets and Tradingclaus vistesenJune 28, 2026Equities, chartbooks, AI

Global Leading Indicators, May 2026 - Danger Danger

I am combining the April and May updates to the LEI Chartbook into a single edition, which, in hindsight, seems like a good decision. Leading indicators showed broad-based weakness in April, but I was sceptical that this deterioration would survive revisions. The May batch, meanwhile, confirms the weakness—and then some. Revisions could still alter the story, but as of May the key message is clear: global LEIs are now on the cusp of a broad-based downturn, having otherwise remained resilient in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and, in particular, volatile US economic and foreign policy.

US Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook, May 2026 - The Unholy Alliance

The May 2026 edition of the US equity sector chartbook can be found here, with accompanying portfolio statistics here

I have made quite a few changes to the chartbook since the last time I ran it. I have changed my data provider from Investing.com to SheetsFinance, which makes it much easier to update the spreadsheets feeding the Python scripts that generate this, and any other market-data chartbooks, that I am using. The data now reflect one-year trailing total returns with daily observations—approximately 250 trading days per year. I have also added a cross-correlation rotation matrix, which tracks shifts in sector correlations with IVV, along with chart plots of rolling correlation Z-scores.

Things to think about #17 - The Land Trap, The Dragonlance Chronicles, Revelation Space, and Canadian Short Fiction

It’s been a while since I did one of these, which leaves with plenty of material for your enjoyment. The Land Trap, by Mike Bird, a journalist working for the Economist, is my most recent non-fiction reads—or listen via Audible—and I enjoyed it. Mike’s book puts pen to paper on an idea that has rattled around in my head for a while. If we were to reinvent capitalism today—with our knowledge about the past few hundred years—we would likely treat land and real estate very differently from a financial and economic perspective. More specifically, we wouldn’t allow the speculation, securitisation and ultimately ownership concentration of land and housing that is a core feature of capitalist societies today.

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